Heavy Rain, Xuan Son's Absence: The Pressure Visible in Vietnam's Camp Before Thailand

Vietnam head coach Kim Sang-sik's expression was distracted during the training session. Heavy rain at the Acamanik field in Bandung, cameras of journalists all around—but the moment the camera lenses held onto most was the coach's eyes. There was determination, but also a deep thought. Whose name was perhaps Xuan Son. The forward, without whom Vietnam's attack now faces the challenge of being rebuilt. Data and signals say this training was not merely routine; it was a mirror of the team's mental and tactical preparation.

Let me clarify the context. The competition is named 'FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026'—a name that requires verification, as conventionally it is called the ASEAN Championship. The other teams in the group are Thailand, the Philippines, and Pakistan. The inclusion of Pakistan itself is unusual, as it does not fall under the conventional ASEAN Championship scope. Nevertheless, according to the source, the group position is as such.

Vietnam beat the Philippines in the first match, but the win was 'unconvincing'—many critics say earning 3 points was a bonus given how they played. After this win, the tough opponent Thailand awaits. The other strong team of the group. All signals suggest this match will effectively decide the group's top spot.

The way the training was organized under this pressure reveals the true picture of team management. Those who played in the starting XI against the Philippines only did light recovery in the tunnel. Meanwhile, the alternative players—Hai Long, Minh Khoa, Dang Khoa, and Tai Loc—came to the field and trained fully. This division is highly significant. In football, this is called load management. Balancing the freshness of the starting XI after the Philippines match and keeping the rest ready—that is the real challenge.

But the question now lies elsewhere. Xuan Son is absent. The striker around whom Vietnam's attack plan was built is sidelined with an injury. When the primary attacking weapon is lost, the team's style changes. In coping with this loss, Kim Sang-sik may be thinking of a more fluid attack, or perhaps focusing on a deeper defense and counter-attacks. As an alternative, the substitute forwards must now be trusted. The coach's 'pensive look' may not be out of fear of Thailand's strength; it could also stem from worry about his own squad's depth.

Nguyen Hoang Duc's situation is also worth watching. He was rested for the Philippines match—the team management does not want to risk this playmaker who recently returned from injury. During training, he warmed up quietly and participated in shadow-play. The signal is clear—he may come on as a substitute against Thailand, or get limited minutes. This is a conscious effort to preserve creativity, but it also means the coach will not have full control for the entire ninety minutes.

This is where it gets interesting: Kim Sang-sik is not just giving instructions from the side; he is joining the runs himself. His direct participation in the warm-up run and shadow-play is not merely tactical; it is also a technique of mental motivation. By standing beside the players, he is showing that responsibility rests equally on everyone. But the question is, will this sincerity translate into results on the pitch?

In my analysis, the Thailand match must be viewed separately. The reason is simple—this match's commercial and broadcast value is the highest in the ASEAN region. A Vietnam-Thailand match is never an ordinary match; it is the premium fixture of this region. Broadcasters, sponsors—everyone's eyes are on this match. Therefore, not having a key striker in this high-profile match is not just a tactical loss but also a mental blow.

Statistics show Vietnam has won only 1 match in the tournament. This sample is too small to determine a trend. But just as the phrase 'unconvincing win' keeps coming up, without process-based data like xG, it is hard to say what the real situation is. Let me say what needs to be said—if on-field performance is worse than the underlying numbers, the risk of result regression against Thailand increases. This risk is now the biggest concern for the Vietnam camp.

Here is an intriguing point: if the 'FIFA branding' is genuine, it would indicate a new phase of global-body control and revenue distribution in the ASEAN region. But since there are verification-related questions about the competition's name and structure, reaching this conclusion would not be appropriate. There are also questions about the reliability of the information—the standings graphic is stated to be 'made with AI assistance,' which suggests the visual data also demands independent verification.

There is another aspect to training in the rain. Is working on a wet pitch deliberate preparation, or was that time slot chosen due to schedule pressure? The source does not give a clear answer. However, playing against Thailand on a wet pitch in tropical weather—this training will surely be useful.

What exactly is the pressure on the team management? For that, look at Kim Sang-sik's statements. He repeatedly says, 'Vietnam faces many difficulties ahead.' Many would call this a sign of weakness, but to me, it seems part of expectation management. Lowering public expectations before a tough match, so that the pressure remains bearable.

Now let us discuss Xuan Son's value. As a naturalized player, he represents a model for ASEAN federations. In this model, alongside the development of domestic players, ready-made talent is imported. With Xuan Son injured, a 'sunk value exposure' has been created on that investment. Not only is there cost for his treatment and rehabilitation, but also the additional cost of restructuring the forward line in his absence. All in all, questions may arise about whether this investment was sustainable.

From a management perspective, I see the rest given to Hoang Duc and the earlier decision not to risk Xuan Son as signs of a risk-averse philosophy. This is a positive aspect. Because getting a team onto the pitch after recovering from injury setbacks is something frequently seen as crucial in Asian football. But even so, Xuan Son's injury has now intensified the squad's senior striker crisis. The substitute forwards will now face the test of dressing-room leadership.

As a media narrative, this story is one of 'determination in adversity.' Rain, unconvincing win, injury—all together an emotional narrative is being built. But just as there is emotion, there is also reality. There is result support (the 3 points in the first match), but process support is weak ('unconvincing win'). The gap between these two is the real danger zone. The narrative will last less than a month—as soon as the Thailand match ends, its resolution or collapse will occur.

All in all, I see Vietnam's preparation phase as a 'low-complexity, high-recency' pre-match news item. Here, rather than deep tactical analysis, the news of squad availability and mental state is paramount. Xuan Son's absence, Hoang Duc's careful rehabilitation, and a strong opponent like Thailand—these three factors together have created significant pressure in the Vietnam camp. Now it remains to be seen how Kim Sang-sik turns that pressure into an advantage. In football, results speak for themselves. But seeing the dressing-room situation, it seems a large part of the win-or-loss has already been decided before stepping onto the field. Call it politics or strategy—whatever you call it, Vietnam's real battle is waiting within this pressure.

From my years of watching matches, I can say this much—in such situations, a big team's real test is off the field, in the dressing room, and in the coach's mind. The moment the starting XI is announced against Thailand, it will be clear how bold Kim's decisions have been. Who becomes Xuan Son's replacement? Will Hoang Duc start? The answers to these two questions will decide the match's course.